| The qualification procedures
may be arcane, Speed Weeks may take too long, and the
kvetching about restrictor plates may make the Smokeless
Set's drivers sound like Oprah Winfrey bitching out James
Frey ("How could you lie to me? I'm Oprah"). But
once Sunday afternoon comes, NASCAR nation is set to be
completely psyched once again, and so am I.
They call Nextel Cup's the shortest off
season in sports, but the truth is that Homestead
(November's final race) seems like a long time ago. I
mean, gosh, way back then, the Pittsburgh Steelers were
just a glimmer in Bill Cowher's eye, Louisville looked
like it was going to field a darned good college
basketball team, and Dick Cheney had shot as many people
in the face as you had. Also, Kurt Busch, Jamie McMurray,
Michael Waltrip, Bobby Labonte, Sterling Marlin, Scott
Riggs, Ken Schrader and Terry Labonte drove for different
teams. But the future is now, and the '06 season is set to
begin with a bang. Finally.
The leading storylines for the big race
will include whether or not a Ford or Dodge can break
Chevrolet's hold on the 500; Chevy has won three 500s in a
row, 10 of the last 13 and 13 of the last 17. And the GM
cars are just as dominant overall on restrictor-plate
tracks: before Dale Jarrett's caution-aided win at
Talladega last fall, Chevy had won 13 straight races on
that track, and has won more than 70% of the events held a
the Daytona superspeedway since 1992. Will Dodge break the
skein? I don't think so. I'm not consoled by what I hear
between the lines of what Dodge drivers like Ryan Newman
and Kasey Kahne have said about the 2006 Charger, which is
basically the same as the 2005 Charger, which simply
didn't run well at the restricted superspeedways or the
unrestricted intermediate speedways. Will Ford break
through? That's a far trickier question. There are some
incredible drivers and teams that drive Fords, and though
they've all changed from the Taurus to the Fusion, aero
tests have indicated that they haven't lost much in
translation. Watching Elliott Sadler lead his qualifying
heat last Thursday, you'd have a hard time convincing too
many drivers that the Fusion isn't sound as a drum.
But what are we supposed to do with all
this data? Over the past four seasons (what I refer to as
the "modern era" of Nextel Cup racing), the
three drivers with the best average finish at Daytona
(Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr.) drive
Chevy. The highest Ford is Jarrett in fourth, and the
highest Dodge is Marlin in 13th (though of course he's
moved to Chevy this year). Tony Stewart drives Chevy.
Kevin Harvick drives Chevy. And the leading team in Ford's
stable, Roush Racing, has never won the Daytona 500 (Greg
Biffle is the only Roush driver to post a win at Daytona,
and that was the '03 Pepsi 500 he won on a fluky fuel
strategy). While I'm impressed by Yates, and you can't
help but love the Roush cars, I have to admit that for the
foreseeable future, at plate tracks I'm thinking Chevy.
So which drivers do I think represent
the best wagers on the first race of the 2006 season? Read
on!
Last Season: I finished +54.6 units in
2005, which is pretty darned good, and looks even better
when you consider that I posted 30 winning weeks out of 37
events (I include the mid-May All-Star Challenge). I
selected a correct outright winner in 17 events, and got a
head-to-head wager correct in 28 of 36 events. Let's see
if we can do even better in 2006.
Note that outright we will be quoting
our odds direct from BoDog.com this season, which may
result in release delays, but will accomodate a wider
audience.
Chris Harris covers Nascar for Brian
Gabrielle Sports
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____________________________________________
| About the Author |
|
| Christopher Harris
is a featured writer for the Professional
Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at
www.procappers.com |
 |
